Saudi Arabia has long held a dominant position in the Islamic world, leveraging its status as the custodian of Islam’s two holiest sites and its wealth-driven generosity through low-interest funds, donations, and institutions like the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and the Arab League. However, this long-standing dominance is increasingly being challenged—first by Iran, and more recently by a resurgent Turkey—creating a trilateral struggle for influence that is reshaping the Middle East and the broader Muslim world.
Iran’s Regional Ambition
Iran has, for decades, sought to export its revolutionary ideology and expand its influence across the Muslim world. By supporting proxy groups and political movements in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Qatar, Tehran directly confronts Saudi Arabia’s regional hegemony. The rivalry is most visible in the Persian Gulf, a vital artery for global oil trade, where both sides have maintained a fragile and often volatile standoff. Miscalculations in this tense environment could spark open conflict, with far-reaching consequences.
Turkey’s Re-Emergence and Neo-Ottoman Vision
Turkey's recent assertiveness under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has added a new dimension to this power game. Unlike Iran, which remains largely isolated from the West, Turkey enjoys partial integration with global systems—boasting a larger economy, considerable military strength, and soft power that appeals to many Muslims around the world.
Erdoğan has taken bold steps to reassert Turkey’s influence, reviving Islamic-nationalist sentiment and promoting a neo-Ottoman identity. Moves like converting the Hagia Sophia back into a mosque, supporting Muslim causes such as Palestine, Kashmir, Libya, and the Rohingya, and criticizing Saudi Arabia’s role in the Muslim world reflect a broader ambition: to lead a new Islamic coalition that counters the traditional influence of Riyadh and Tehran.
A Fractured Islamic World Order
This growing tripolar competition is fragmenting the Islamic world. The Libya conflict, Syrian civil war, and tensions in Iraq have been worsened by the involvement of these three powers, each backing opposing factions. The risk of escalation in strategic regions such as the Strait of Hormuz, the Eastern Mediterranean, and North Africa continues to rise.
Turkey, though increasingly assertive, faces significant internal and external challenges—economic instability, tensions with the European Union over Cyprus, and the ongoing refugee crisis. These limit Ankara’s ability to sustain prolonged geopolitical confrontation. However, its growing ideological influence among Muslims, particularly among youth and diaspora communities, gives it a unique edge in the realm of soft power.
Saudi Arabia’s Strategic Calculus
In response, Saudi Arabia has taken farsighted strategic steps to maintain its leadership. Its alignment with the United States, the European Union, and most recently, Israel, demonstrates a pragmatic shift in foreign policy. These alliances are intended not only to deter Iranian expansion but also to counter Turkish ambitions. Backed by immense resources and the support of many Arab states, Riyadh remains a formidable player.
Conclusion
The trilateral contest between Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Turkey is no longer just a regional rivalry—it is a struggle to define the future ideological and political leadership of the Islamic world. Each actor brings a distinct vision: Saudi Arabia’s traditionalist conservatism backed by wealth and diplomacy; Iran’s revolutionary Shiite ideology supported by proxies and resistance narratives; and Turkey’s populist Islamic nationalism under a neo-Ottoman banner.
While all three claim to defend Muslim interests globally, their conflicting ambitions risk deeper fragmentation, instability, and suffering in regions already grappling with crisis. Unless diplomacy prevails, the Islamic world may face a future shaped more by division and power struggles than by unity and progress.
