The conflict in eastern Ladakh
has posed grave situation on Indo China border, a minor miscalculation could
lead to the widespread war between two giant nations although both neighbors
are committed to resolve the conflict peacefully. The concern for Indian is
that, is India prepared for the war on two fronts with Pakistan and China?
Technically India and Pakistan
are already in war along the LOC in Jammu & Kashmir, they are periodically
exchanging fire on the border, so there is a possibility that Pakistan army
could come forward to aid China in case of Indo-china conflict. This could
result into the real trouble for India, which the government of India never
believed although the military establishment had been raising the concerns
periodically.
However, the possibility of the
involvement of Pakistan army into the Indo-China conflict is the distant
possibility, firstly its economy cannot afford any war at the time when its
forex in the downward trajectory and secondly it will provoke the other powers
to intervene in the conflict which even China will not be able to afford. Their
close allies in Gulf Saudi Arabia and UAE, which bailout Pakistan periodically will
not allow it to go into the war with India, and the prolongation of the war
will add more uncertainty to already troubled oil economy. In addition to that,
if Pakistan involves, it will invite trouble from western border as well
because it will be against the will of United States, so US and India could
malign the Pakistan western border as they have enough resources to teach
lesson to Pak army. United States has the base in the Persian Gulf as well
which will be enough to hold back them.
United States has already
stationed their largest naval ever in the backyard of China, Pentagon is
already in search of such opportunity to suffocate them on eastern border,
Japan and Australia will be there for at least logistic support, Philippines
and Vietnam are already in search of the new friend like India.
Third party involvement in this
conflict is speculative, and they could involve only for logistic support, will
not participate in physical exchange.
However, time has come for India
to prepare for two front war with Pakistan and assertive China, and Indian army
should have enough capability to block the Malacca strait in the Indo-pacific
and CPEC inside Pakistan, which will help India to bend the PLA on the eastern
border.
